Fewer students = demographic spiral for Japan's private colleges

Yonosuke Fukuda succeeded his father as chancellor of Tohwa University, a private engineering college on Japan's Kyushu island, five years ago. He plans to close it down when the current crop of students graduates in 2009.

"There is no bright future" for Japanese universities, said Fukuda, 38, who had 140 student applications for 160 slots this year. "It's time to quit before things get even worse."

Japan's 550 private universities are running out of students as the country's birthrate declines. About 40 percent of colleges failed to meet their enrollment targets this year, and a quarter are in the red, according to the Education Ministry.

The shortage is forcing some colleges to recruit students from overseas, especially China, with its large population, proximity and linguistic similarities. Others are creating programs that appeal to the swelling ranks of retirees.

"It's a life or death situation," said Makiko Yoshimura, a credit analyst at Standard & Poor's in Tokyo, who studies college finances. "Fewer students means a cash-flow problem."

While 52 percent of Japanese 18-year-olds are attending college this year, up from 46 percent a decade ago, their numbers dropped to 1.4 million in 2005 from 2.1 million in 1992, according to the Education Ministry.

Japan's population shrank last year for the first time, with 21,266 more deaths than births.
Ten years ago, only 3.8 percent of private universities failed to enroll enough students, according to the Promotion and Mutual Aid Corporation for Private Schools.

"Japanese universities never had to compete like this," said Yasuhiko Nishii, a division manager at the corporation.

Private colleges expanded faster than their public counterparts as the population grew after World War II. Some 478 private universities served 74 percent of Japan's students in 2000, up from 105 with 52 percent of enrollment in 1950, ministry figures show.

Japan's 87 state-run universities aren't immune from student shortages, said Norihito Hisada, who tracks college finances for the ministry. Mergers have pruned their ranks from 94 two years ago, he said.

Some students may benefit from the crunch.

Many colleges are relaxing acceptance requirements, making career-defining entrance exams less stressful, said Keigo Nakano, a spokesman at the ministry's college-entrance section.

At 55, Yasuju Sato may be a poster man for change. The president of Ginseido Ltd., which rents office buildings in Tokyo, is taking a master's course tailored to seniors at Tokyo Keizai University.

Sato wasn't required to take an entrance exam and has four years to complete his degree in economics instead of two.

"It's very important to keep exercising your brain," he said.

So far, Sato is the only student in the senior program, said Katsuya Sasagawa, a university spokesman.

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